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Investor Demand Driving Gold Price Spiral?
Speculators in commodity futures basically open a bet if another trader can be found to take the other side. In the majority of cases, the bet is closed out before expiration, settled in cash without the actual “stuff” changing hands. That got me thinking.
GLD and other gold ETFs are doing something very different than what futures trading used to do: they are taking tonnes and tonnes of the stuff off the market. In effect, investor demand via exchange traded funds has become a new phenomenon in the supply/demand equation, fuelling the price spiral like never before.
We [...]
Sigma Design (SIGM): The Post Mortem
Fellow financial blogger Charles Kirk of The Kirk Report wrote to let us know that SIGM (NASD:SIGM) would make a good candidate for sentiment cycle analysis.
As usual, we applied our analytics to the daily chart along with the widely-watched 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The pink/cyan dots provide potential entry/exit signals while the price bars are colored red/yellow/green to identify relative performance.
After a period of outperfomance, SIGM began underperforming on December 27, 2007. The phases of the sentiment cycle are distinct, easily identified in real time by the tone of financial reporting. It is interesting to [...]
Real Estate: Shades of 1981
It was May 2005 when I saw the first “assignment of contract” listings posted in the windows of real estate offices where I lived in Yaletown, arguably the home of the most expensive apartments in Canada.
Today, there are probably 20-30 cranes standing within a two square mile area as bad news starts to come in. Check out the links to the condos and the prices. Try not to gasp!
2 more Vancouver condo projects in receivership
The Chandler Development Group Inc.’s H&H Yaletown project in Vancouver, and the Garden City building in Richmond have been placed in the hands [...]
Commentary and Stocks for Friday
After publishing the first installment of Build Your Own Investment Portfolio, Mebane Faber from World Beta sent me a link, reminding me to bring up risk parity portfolios.
I first saw the concept a few years ago when The Quant pointed me to Ray Dalio’s Engineering Targeted Returns and Risk (more at Bridgewater).
At the bottom of Mebane’s post were some links to PanAgora’s risk parity portfolio performance. I was shocked. For one, the dates of inception were 2006 and 2007. For two, commodities are now firmly entrenched as an asset class.
Five [...]
Mad Money Stocks for Friday
The Booyah list is comprised of featured and game plan stocks mentioned by Jim Cramer on Mad Money. The stocks are listed in alphabetical order below. Click on the headers to sort by column.
Want more ideas? Get your All Access Pass to our research.
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The Index of Steel is Back
Our research shows that steel has been quietly moving up the ranks in terms of performance. The major steel indexes — SIG Steel Producers Index, AMEX Steel Index, and DJ Wilshire U.S. Steel Index — are all up nearly ten percent since January 2008.
So of course, it was interesting to read an article on February 25 with the title “Will Steel Futures Catch On?”. WSJ reported that “The London Metal Exchange is launching a steel-futures contract today, aimed at giving producers, suppliers and consumers a means to hedge costs amid a shift toward more-volatile steel [...]
The Rule of Two: Brian Hunter Update
The March 3, 2008 issue of Canadian Business has the latest on the ex-Amaranth trader, but what intrigues me is how ex-Enron John Arnold’s Centaurus Energy was playing the other side.
“Always two there are; no more, no less: a master and an apprentice,” said Yoda of the Sith Lords while Darth Bane concluded, “Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it.” It’s the Star Wars Rule of Two.
Market speculation: The trials of Brian Hunter
NG futures are later-date contractual obligations to deliver or receive 10,000 million British [...]
Stocks to Watch for Thursday
I was working today, and did not have time to write anything witty here.
And the Winners Are…
The stock scan conducted after the close on Wednesday found 93 winners and 24 losers.
The top 50 winners are listed in alphabetical order below. Click on the column headers to sort the list. Our scan criteria incorporates price movement, range and liquidity (500,000 shares on the day, 20-day average of 1.5 million).
Get your All Access Pass to our research and find out which ones to buy, sell or hold.
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Media Digest
Blackstone Plans to Line Up LBO [...]
Mad Money Watch for Thursday
The Booyah list is comprised of featured and game plan stocks mentioned by Jim Cramer on Mad Money. The stocks are listed in alphabetical order below. Click on the headers to sort by column.
Want more ideas? Get your All Access Pass to our research.
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Stocks to Watch for Wednesday
Trader Mike mentioned this morning that Google has “been showing poor relative strength for about the last week”, and disappointing ComScore data basically kicked the stock to the curb this morning.
That got me thinking about the sentiment cycle again. Our InVivo.RMI indicators detected GOOG running out of gas in mid-December 2007. What was the press reporting about GOOG then? Check out all the glowing good news videos at CNBC from that time. It seems like a world away now, doesn’t it?
Speaking of enthusiasm, the “It” sectors right now are all commodity-related. The news is [...]
Mad Money Watch for Wednesday
The Booyah list is comprised of featured and game plan stocks mentioned by Jim Cramer on Mad Money. The stocks are listed in alphabetical order below. Click on the headers to sort by column.
Want more ideas? Get your All Access Pass to our research.
[TABLE=100]
Stocks to Watch for Tuesday
The catalyst for today’s rally was Standard and Poor’s decision to keep “AAA debt ratings for the nation’s largest bond insurers, easing concern credit losses will extend the worst earnings slump since 2001.” Meanwhile, VISA prepared to raise up to $17 billion by way of IPO.
Our clients are happy, as we nailed the trap laid out on the daily $SPX chart late last week. Next up, we’ll be watching for rotation out of the safety of Treasuries back to “risky” stocks.
And the Winners Are…
The stock scan conducted after the close on Monday found 84 winners and 20 [...]
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