Feb

14

How to Succeed in Love (and the Market)

By Teresa | Filed Under Brain Candy | Start a Discussion 

On the occasion of Valentine’s Day, here is a bit of advice from Amir D. Aczel, author of Chance:

A mathematical theorem has been developed that gives us the best sampling and stopping rule for all these situations. It can be found and further explained in books on probability. But the strategy is as follows:

You will maximize your probability of finding the best spouse if you date about thirty-seven percent of the available candidates in your life, and then choose to stay with the next candidate who is better than all previous ones.

Isn’t it Romantic?
This is, indeed, a very strange-sounding rule. But mathematicians have proved it works better than any other. The number thirty-seven percent is an approximation of the exact number I/e, where e is the base for natural logarithms, or 2.71828 . . . Of course, this rule can’t guarantee success, but, as Churchill said of democracy, it’s the worst strategy except for all others, and it gives you a thirty-seven percent probability of making the best decision. Any other strategy — whether choosing earlier or later — significantly decreases your probability of success in finding the best candidate.

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