* * * Cheap gaz sustains stupidity! * * *

The SIZE / inefficiency of vehicles in Canada / U.S. is obscene.

Today in Bellingham I was biking behind a Chev Tahoe & GMC Yukon; both are “Suburban” model vehicles that burn ~ a dime ~ per city block.

They were transporting a total of 3 souls. From a peddler’s perspective the tonnage, exhaust, noise is seriously stupid. Those folks behind the big wheels probably use efficient light bulbs and choose paper rather than plastic.

How Much ($/gaz) will it take to scrape those HULKS? (We shall soon find out. Let the “Buy & Sell” be your index. )

Like all curious and proactive seekers of financial wisdom, I’ve come across more than my fair share of supposed definitive statements concerning ‘edge’ in regards to the Kelly Criteria. My first flash of insight I used to dismiss their nonsense was the belief system required to fully support whatever notion they were behind must be constantly reinforced with so much energy that any contrary examination or perspective outside their belief system cannot be comprehended. Avoid dogmatic thinking! “This is the truth, the light, and the way and whoever may believe shall be rewarded - with piles and piles of money.”

I still think a faulty belief system might have a lot to do with it, but now I give equal credit to the notion that their success depends very little on whatever financial wisdom they have but mostly on salesmanship. Either I’m very savvy or I just happen to have a mindset where I can more easily discern the difference between someone trying to get me to the happy place where I am ready to buy vs. getting me to a place where I believe this is the best financial choice. The lack of empirical evidence I’ve found on the latter scenario is remarkable.

Well, not to you the hucksterism is not remarkable. While you were relating the insights to the reading on Fortunes Formula, I was thinking about this particularly frustrating exchange I had a while back with someone possessing both an ‘edge’ and a advanced knowledge of mathematics.

He had gone to great lengths to conjure a formula stating the optimal stock price for whatever the investor was interested in based on their ‘official’ numbers from the 10-K and such reports. The very systematic approach combined with the carefully crafted formulas served to convince everyone else in that little corner of the internet.

I brought up the notion of sector rotation and the overall state of the markets not as a premise for causing trouble but to see how his formula made adjustments. Sector rotation as well as the Dow theory itself were dismissed as nonsense. My frustration peaked when the very notion of supply and demand was tossed aside. Then I asked what tech stocks had reached their ‘optimal’ price in 2000 and how many had therefore been sold at the top. You know where this is going, don’t you? Very soon all the math and the systematic approach were out the door and the discussion was reduced to just another internet flame war.

I suppose financial wisdom is no different than any other wisdom. Even the most noble concepts can and will be co-opted by hucksters to lessen the credibility of the entire study. The best we can do is to constantly struggle to move forward.