May

11

Portfolio Strategy for May 12

Teresa Lo @ 8:36 PM | | Leave a Comment

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May

10

Trading Ideas for Monday

Teresa Lo @ 5:40 PM | | Leave a Comment

The stock scan conducted after the close on Friday found 30 winners and 22 losers. Click on the column headers to sort the list below.

The scan is designed to find stocks that are current “in play”; criteria includes price movement, range and liquidity (500,000 shares on the day, 20-day average of 1.5 million). The entire list has been ranked and sorted relative to performance against the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 indexes. Please refer to the podcast for background information.

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May

9

Podcast: Peter Lynch Moments

Teresa Lo @ 6:00 PM | | 2 Comments

In today’s podcast, we talked about the many Peter Lynch moments experienced in this week’s travels:

  • Right click ON THIS LINK and select “Save Target/Link As…” to save the MP3 file to your computer.

We covered GOOG, DELL, EBAY, ANN, NKE, VFC, LULU and UA. We touched on sentiment in the oil markets and, as usual, included a few un-PC observations. Last, but not least, we revealed our new theme song, Money Don’t Matter 2 Night. Lyrics and video at MTV. There is also an unedited version of the video by Spike Lee at MTV Canada.

Market Sentiment

Pay attention to what Sharon Epperson said (in the video below) about trying to pick a top in oil: this has got to be the “to infinity and beyond” phase.

  • The Big Picture for Investors
    Discussing what the message is from the markets and economy, with CNBC’s Bob Pisani, Sharon Epperson and Rick Santelli
  • Consumers Feel Pinched, But Market Isn’t Worried
    [Editor: More "look across the valley" talk...] Oil prices continued to rise at a breakneck pace, and there was fresh evidence that consumers were sticking to the bare necessities, and increasingly using credit cards to fund those purchases. But the market doesn’t seem to be worried. Instead, it’s betting that consumers–on who’s back two-third of all economic activity rests–will make it through this rough patch.
  • Capitalizing on Crude
    [Editor: Nothing but glowing good news...] Capitalizing on crude, with Eitan Bernstein, of FBR, and Byron King, of the Outstanding Investments newsletter

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May

9

Friday Mailbag

Teresa Lo @ 10:42 AM | | 7 Comments

Our client Daniel took the time to send in questions about a number of things people want to know, but were afraid to ask. ;-)

Daniel
I have a question to know if it is possible. If one wants to “catch” a peak although you would not recommend on it how would I know what the band would be on the upside. I mean I have the band on the lower side obviously because it would still be a long position, but what I have seen in the charts it does not seem simply a matter of reversing the difference from the Close or Open to the band.

Teresa
If you wish to ‘pick tops”, there are two types mentioned in The Ultimate Trading Course: the spike top (after a parabolic rise) and the test of top (Trader Vic 2B). These are anti-trend hit and run trade setups, and generally, the InVivo.Stops would still be UNDER the price action.

08-wynn.gif
WYNN was a particularly elegant Trader Vic 2B Test of Top

08-wm.gif
WM was a particularly elegant spike bottom

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May

9

The Worst is Over (or so they say)

Teresa Lo @ 12:41 AM | | 2 Comments

Is it me, or is the “look across the valley” chorus breaking out all over CNBC? In one corner, we have Buffett, Greenspan, Stovall and The Bank of England:

  • Market Rally Signals Stocks Looking Past Recession
    “We’re of the opinion that the market has likely seen the worst,” says Standard & Poor’s Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall, who studied market behavior in and around the 11 recessions since 1945. On average, the S&P 500 declined a combined 25.9 percent ahead of and during the recession. Data compiled by S&P shows stocks typically fall from their highs nine and a half months before the onset of a recession and bottom out three–fifths of the way into the downturn, but Stovall sees “eerie similarities” between today and the 1990-1991 recession, which did not follow that script.
  • Buffett Says Credit Crisis Ebbs for Wall Street Firms
    Warren Buffett, chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said the global credit crunch has eased for bankers, and the Federal Reserve probably averted more failures by helping to rescue Bear Stearns Cos. “The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over,” Buffett said today on Bloomberg Television. “In terms of people with individual mortgages, there’s a lot of pain left to come.” Buffett was interviewed before the Omaha, Nebraska-based company’s annual meeting, attended by about 31,000 people.
  • Worst of credit crunch may be over, says BoE
    In a report likely to reassure families struggling with soaring mortgage bills and falling house prices, the Bank’s deputy governor, Sir John Gieve, said London’s troubled money markets could soon recover from what is widely regarded as the worst crisis since the Great Depression. He said: “The most likely path ahead is that confidence and risk appetite will return gradually in the coming months.”
  • Greenspan: Worst of Credit Crisis Is Over
    Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Thursday that the worst of the credit crisis is over, according to attendees at a New York speech. Greenspan also said house prices still had a long way to fall and it was unlikely they would stabilize by year-end, according to meeting attendees who provided Reuters details of the speech delivered at the Alternative Public Strategies Conference.

In the other corner, we have Soros, Rogers and The Business Roundtable:

  • Jim Rogers Says Financial Crisis Hasn’t Hit Its Worst
    “I doubt that we’re half way through the financial crisis,” Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said at a Barclays Plc press conference in Singapore. “We certainly haven’t hit the bottom as far as I’m concerned.” Rogers’ comments contradict those by heads of Wall Street investment banks and by Soros, who yesterday said the “acute phase” of the financial crisis is nearing an end even as the U.S. economy only now starts to feel the effect.
  • Soros: Worst from credit crisis yet to come
    “I think the situation is more serious than the authorities admit or recognize,” Soros told journalists in a conference call. Measures taken so far to slash interest rates and stimulate the economy were “necessary but not sufficient,” he said. “Because of that, I think the situation is going to get worse before it gets better.”
  • US business leader warns of ‘double dip’ recession
    “If, after the economic stimulus package takes effect and we get into (20)09, and the … lower interest rates do not kick in, there is a probability of (a) double-dip recession,” said Harold McGraw, chairman of Business Roundtable, which represents chief executive officers of leading US companies. “That could have serious effects on the other developed countries,” said McGraw, who is also head of publishing giant McGraw-Hill.

Fascinating stuff. There are also two articles in Bloomberg Markets Magazine that might be of interest:

  • The House of Dimon
    The JPMorgan Chase CEO became the go-to guy on Wall Street with the emergency acquisition of Bear Stearns–a surprising step for a man who is mostly an old- fashioned consumer banker.
  • The Improviser
    Ben Bernanke, the consensus-building academic who toiled in Alan Greenspan’s shadow, is emerging as the most powerful–and inventive–Federal Reserve chairman in the 95-year history of the central bank. Paul Volcker says he’s overreaching.

07-loef.jpgLast, but not least, is a conversation between CNBC Europe’s Geoff Cutmore and technician Edward Leof. I saw the interview live the other night, and man, it is the sort of stuff that will make your head spin.

Pour yourself a stiff drink before watching Learning from Dow’s History: Edward Loef from Theodoor Gilissen Bankiers takes a technical look at periods in the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s history to try and predict what’s in store for the index.

May

8

Trading Ideas for Friday

Teresa Lo @ 7:58 PM | | Leave a Comment

The stock scan conducted after the close on Thursday found 56 winners and 16 losers. Click on the column headers to sort the list below.

The scan is designed to find stocks that are “in play”; criteria includes price movement, range and liquidity (500,000 shares on the day, 20-day average of 1.5 million). The entire list has been ranked and sorted relative to performance against the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 indexes. Please refer to the podcast for background information.
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May

8

Feeding the Mind

Teresa Lo @ 11:07 AM | | Leave a Comment

I am out of the office today. If you’re in the mood to pursue some intellectual activities, check out the following:

  • Portable Alpha Theory and Practice
    The book is written by Sabrina C. Callin from PIMCO. Download the free chapter; the link is in the last line of the article. And yes, traders should read it too.
  • Mike, Resident Philosopher
    One of my long-time readers is a true philosopher of the markets. We’ve been corresponding for years, and recently, I asked for permission to post his missives to the blog. Check out Lead a Horse to Water, Easy Money, and Rejecting Reality.

May

7

Trading Ideas for Thursday

Teresa Lo @ 8:05 PM | | Leave a Comment

The stock scan conducted after the close on Wednesday found 19 winners and 38 losers. Click on the column headers to sort the list below.

The scan is designed to find stocks that are “in play”; criteria includes price movement, range and liquidity (500,000 shares on the day, 20-day average of 1.5 million). The entire list has been ranked and sorted relative to performance against the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 indexes. Please refer to the podcast for background information.
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