Time for Rotation?

2008.08.18 @ 3:55 PM Eastern | LINK | 0 Comments

There was some interesting sentiment news today from NASDAQ. They announced the creation of NASDAQ OMX indexes, four new benchmark indexes that will “help international investors better manage their exposure to these increasingly important global sectors”. YTD Comparison of $SPX, BBH, KOL, SLX, GDX Is the timing of the launch somewhat late? Three of the benchmarks are commodity-related and the biotech benchmark has been on momentum player’s watch. Consumer Staples and Healthcare While reviewing the weekend reading, another sentiment-related article caught my attention by none other John Murphy: Two Sector Leaders Are Staples and Healthcare Until proven otherwise, the two strongest market sectors [...]

Portfolio Strategy for August 18

2008.08.17 @ 7:29 PM Eastern | LINK | 0 Comments

The July portfolio review has been published. ACTION FOR THIS WEEK The Strategic Performance and Ex-U.S. model portfolios should be adjusted as necessary at the open on Monday. The Conservative Retirement and Thrift Savings Plan model portfolios were re-allocated on August 1, 2008 and are not due for adjustment until September 2, 2008. ALLOCATION FOR THE STRATEGIC PERFORMANCE PORTFOLIO This portfolio should be adjusted at the open on August 18 to the following percentages: 16.43% VXF 14.16% EEM 10.18% GSG 27.45% FXF 31.78% TLT ALLOCATION FOR THE EX-U.S. PORTFOLIO This portfolio should be adjusted at the open on August 18 to the following percentages: 18.88% IEV 12.04% EEB 15.33% [...]

Taleb Fooled by Leverage

2008.08.17 @ 11:06 AM Eastern | LINK | 4 Comments

Tom Keene did two must-listen podcasts this week: Fisher Says Consumption Slowdown May Cause Bond Defaults[DOWNLOAD PODAST] Peter Fisher, managing director and co-head of fixed income at BlackRock Inc., talks with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene about the Federal Reserve’s relationship with the U.S. Treasury, assumption of the Treasury’s distressed pool of assets onto the Fed’s central bank balance sheet and the potential impact of an economic slowdown on bond default rates. Taleb Says Crisis Continues Until Banks’ Management Changes[DOWNLOAD PODCAST] Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” talks with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene about the globalization of financial [...]

Portfolio Review: July 2008

2008.08.17 @ 9:00 AM Eastern | LINK | 0 Comments

If June 2008 capped a difficult quarter for equities, July was a tough month for portfolios with exposure to the deflating commodity bubble.

Trading Ideas for Monday

2008.08.16 @ 5:07 PM Eastern | LINK | 0 Comments

The stock scan conducted after the close on Friday found 88 winners and 64 losers: [VIEW SPREADSHEET] The entire list was then ranked and sorted relative to performance against the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 indexes. Click File > Export to save the spreadsheet to your own computer. The scan is designed to find stocks that are current “in play”; criteria includes price movement, range and liquidity (500,000 shares on the day, 20-day average volume of 1.5 million shares). Please refer to the podcast for background information.

Trading Ideas for Friday

2008.08.14 @ 8:24 PM Eastern | LINK | 2 Comments

The stock scan conducted after the close on Thursday found 91 winners and 23 losers: [VIEW SPREADSHEET] Let’s try something new today. I’ve uploaded the spreadsheet to Google so that readers can see the list of winners and losers. The entire list was then ranked and sorted relative to performance against the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 indexes. Click File > Export to save the spreadsheet to your own computer. The scan is designed to find stocks that are current “in play”; criteria includes price movement, range and liquidity (500,000 shares on the day, 20-day average [...]

Giddy Biotech Bulls?

2008.08.14 @ 2:15 PM Eastern | LINK | 0 Comments

While going through stories from the major financial news outlets, we can’t help but notice that a major theme has emerged. It seems like they have finally clued in to the performance of the biotech sector. While market participants were losing sleep in the month of July with the major weakness everywhere, biotechs quietly outperformed and are now belatedly getting the ’something has changed’ media exposure. Let’s make a list of some bullish biotech talk: The Momentum Crowd Runs Into Biotech “It really has nothing to do with the underlying facts and figures,” Worth says. “It’s the gambling nature of certain capital, coupled [...]

Trading Ideas for Thursday

2008.08.13 @ 7:52 PM Eastern | LINK | 0 Comments

The stock scan conducted after the close on Wednesday found 22 winners and 26 losers. The list of winners was ranked and sorted relative to performance against the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 indexes. Click on the column headers below to sort other columns. The scan is designed to find stocks that are current “in play”; criteria includes price movement, range and liquidity (500,000 shares on the day, 20-day average volume of 1.5 million shares). Please refer to the podcast for background information.

$SOX It To Them

2008.08.13 @ 1:43 PM Eastern | LINK | 0 Comments

Trading Ideas for Wednesday featured 25 winners in a weak market. Seven of the day’s winners were from the semiconductor sector. This sort of price action gives more confirmation that money is flowing into technology with Jim Cramer leading the charge: Momentum in Tech? The market favors momentum over fundamentals right now, Cramer said during Tuesday’s edition of Mad Money at the Half. CNBC’s Bob Pisani told Cramer Tuesday that this tech momentum trade was just a short-term trend as investors look to make some money. Pisani agreed with Cramer that the U.S. dollar was going to be “a serious headwind” [...]

Trading Ideas for Wednesday

2008.08.12 @ 6:25 PM Eastern | LINK | 0 Comments

There are certain fundamental truths about market survival that people tend to ignore or forget, just when they need it the most. Let’s look at some recent examples. First, it has been reported that Bill Miller averaged down big time last month and now has an Enron-sized bet on Freddie Mac. While Miller has vigorously — even defiantly — defended is actions in his Q2 Commentary [DOWNLOAD PDF], the fact is that he has fallen into the classic trap for which Daniel Kahneman was awarded the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics: prospect theory. May his faith in … [...]

Money Flows Toward $DOT Index

2008.08.12 @ 2:29 PM Eastern | LINK | 0 Comments

Money rotating out of hot sectors is generally put to work elsewhere quickly. Looking at the Trading Ideas for Tuesday, we can see the stampede out of basic materials (gold & silver, metal mining, steel, chemicals) and energy (oil, coal). Where it the money going? It seems like some of this money went into tech stocks. We can see this from the recent price action from the PHLX TheStreet.com Internet Index ($DOT). Momentum players love watching where the action is and it seems like technology will always be one of their favorite areas to trade. The PHLX [...]

Trading Ideas for Tuesday

2008.08.11 @ 5:54 PM Eastern | LINK | 0 Comments

The stock scan conducted after the close on Monday found 176 winners and 77 losers. The list of losers was ranked and sorted relative to performance against the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 indexes. Click on the column headers below to sort other columns. The scan is designed to find stocks that are current “in play”; criteria includes price movement, range and liquidity (500,000 shares on the day, 20-day average volume of 1.5 million shares). Please refer to the podcast for background information.

Quarterly Trader’s Workshop

Members are invited to attend the next workshop scheduled for February 22 – 26, 2010. Join me for the entire week from 9:00 to 11:00AM Eastern in a small group setting where you can pick my brain. The focus is on the key concepts of hit-and-run technical trading. I will demonstrate the method by calling trades in real-time for the E-mini S&P futures.

No special software is required. The workshop is conducted online in webinar format with audio and charts streaming via browser. Charts and audio will be archived for those unable to attend. More…

About Us

InvivoAnalytics.com is a community of traders and investors determined to be masters of their own financial destiny.

The founder, Teresa Lo, has been online since 1998, the year she retired after a 12-year tour of duty on the sell side of the securities industry. She is currently the senior portfolio strategist at a private investment management firm. More…