Nov
30
Portfolio Strategy for December 1
Teresa @ 12:00 PM | | Leave a Comment
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Nov
29
Trading Ideas for Monday
Teresa @ 2:51 PM | | Leave a Comment
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Nov
29
Weekly ETF Ranking
Teresa @ 2:43 PM | | Leave a Comment
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Nov
26
Trading Ideas for Friday
Teresa @ 4:51 PM | | 2 Comments
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Nov
26
Using The Daily Worksheets
Teresa @ 4:32 PM | | 2 Comments
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Nov
26
Something Rotten with CPB and HNZ?
Pete @ 2:42 PM | | Leave a Comment
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Nov
26
The 50/200 Cross: CWT and FL
Pete @ 10:17 AM | | Leave a Comment
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Nov
25
Trading Ideas for Wednesday
Teresa @ 4:40 PM | | 3 Comments
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Nov
25
Observations and Sentiment for Tuesday
Teresa @ 4:30 PM | | 4 Comments
Financial bloggers are fond of opining, writing volumes of posts that tend to repeat a macro theme until the cows come home. I have no idea where they find time for such verbiage, but given readers are not 5 years old, I say it once, and once only.
In case you missed the July 2008 portfolio review (published on August 17), I wrote, “It seems to me that the market could be at an important turning point, one where investors will begin to worry about return OF capital rather than return ON capital. To that end, our holdings in Treasury bonds may benefit tremendously from a peak in top-line inflation numbers as global economies tip toward the recessionary side of the scales.”
Deflation, Disinflation or Reinflation?
Today’s news of continued home price declines and a “GDP report showed consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, dropped at a revised 3.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter, more than the 3.1 percent decrease estimated by Commerce last month. Wage figures showed a smaller gain than previously estimated in the second quarter, reflecting the weakening job market. Salaries grew $13.3 billion, $37.3 billion less than Commerce had projected.”
It seems obvious to me that there is disinflation — if not outright deflation — going on, but it’s never that clear for economists. Some people even think that reflation is around the corner, meaning inflation will be back sooner than thought. My suggestion is to read two takes on this issue, one from the Atlanta Fed’s macroblog, the other from the venerable James Hamilton’s Econbrowser.
The Mamis High/Low Barometer
Let’s take a look at our market barometers to see what the market says. Mamis took the 52-week new highs and new lows statistics for the S&P 500 index and plotted the 10-day simple moving average of the net differential.
S&P 500: Mamis 10-day MA of Net New Highs/Lows
He particularly liked to look at the big picture using statistics from the NYSE:
NYSE: Mamis 10-day MA of Net New Highs/Lows
I will review the rest of our barometers and report to members overnight.
