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Portfolio Strategy for December 1
ALLOCATIONS POSTED BELOW ARE FOR MEMBERS WHO DID NOT CLOSE OUT POSITIONS ON SEPTEMBER 25, 2008.
Those who are hedged should continue adjusting the long ETFs as necessary and reduce the inverse ETFs accordingly. Studies indicate that a WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE $OEX 495.10 (the high from the week of October 17) is required to remove hedges. Those dying to get back into the market are back in, but they are on their own.
Allocation Update
Wondering how much to allocate to core vs. satellite? The question was first answered in October and will be updated monthly at month-end [...]
Trading Ideas for Monday
We didn’t perform a stock scan after Friday’s holiday-shorted trading session. The weekly ETF ranking was published for members.
VIEW THE SPREADSHEET online and if you wish to save it to your own computer, click File > Export from Google Docs.
Winners and Losers
If there is a good swing trade setup on this list, the write-up will be posted overnight. The last two stocks of interest were INTC and FDO.
Weekly ETF Ranking
We were asked by members in early October to take a look at exchange traded funds. This is now a weekly thing. Our list consists of the top 300 by assets under management (plus a few others), ranked and sorted the same way as the stock scan results.
You can view the spreadsheet online OR if you wish to save it to your own computer, click File > Export from Google documents:
November 28, 2008
November 21, 2008
November 14, 2008
November 7, 2008
October 31, 2008
October 24, 2008
October 3, 2008
Using The List
By ranking and sorting the entire list according relative to performance [...]
Trading Ideas for Friday
The stock scan conducted after the close found 11 winners and 18 losers. The weekly ETF ranking was published on Sunday for members.
VIEW THE SPREADSHEET online and if you wish to save it to your own computer, click File > Export from Google Docs.
Winners and Losers
If there is a good swing trade setup on this list, the write-up will be posted overnight. The last two stocks of interest were INTC and FDO.
Using The Daily Workbook
We perform a stock scan after the close each day and also provide buy and sell signals for a number of optionable stock indexes, 300+ ETFs, and the constituent stocks of the S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 indexes. This comes in handy for casual readers and members who occasionally play the market.
For anyone who makes more than a couple of trades a year, I strongly suggest signing up for eSignal on Demand or TradeStation since (i.) they are nearly free at this point and (ii.) our swing trading tools are INCLUDED in membership.
We have a couple of questions [...]
Something Rotten with CPB and HNZ?
Two huge worldwide players in the food processing industry — H.J. Heinz Company (NYSE:HNZ) and Campbell Soup Company (NYSE:CPB) — were on the losers list in Trading Ideas for Wednesday.
H.J. Heinz Company (HNZ)
Daily Chart with InVivo Swing Trading Tools
Campbell Soup (CPB)
Daily Chart with InVivo Swing Trading Tools
During times of economic slowdown and uncertainty, investors rush into defensive names like HNZ and CPB because people will still have to buy food to eat. CPB recently announced earnings that did not please investors while HNZ reiterated its 2009 earnings outlook.
As we can see from the above relative moment charts, both [...]
The 50/200 Cross: CWT and FL
A stock scan performed after the close on Tuesday for “the cross” found two stocks that might be instructive:
California Water Service Group (NYSE:CWT)
Foot Locker, Inc. (NYSE:FL)
California Water Service (CWT)
CWT is in the water utility industry, the second one in two days to make the list. Zacks.com recently produced a bullish research piece on the company.
Daily Chart with InVivo Swing Trading Tools
Trading Ideas for Wednesday
The stock scan conducted after the close found 9 winners and 10 losers. The weekly ETF ranking was published on Sunday for members.
VIEW THE SPREADSHEET online and if you wish to save it to your own computer, click File > Export from Google Docs.
Winners and Losers
If there is a good swing trade setup on this list, the write-up will be posted overnight. The last two stocks of interest were INTC and FDO.
Observations and Sentiment for Tuesday
Financial bloggers are fond of opining, writing volumes of posts that tend to repeat a macro theme until the cows come home. I have no idea where they find time for such verbiage, but given readers are not 5 years old, I say it once, and once only.
In case you missed the July 2008 portfolio review (published on August 17), I wrote, “It seems to me that the market could be at an important turning point, one where investors will begin to worry about return OF capital rather than return ON capital. To that end, our holdings in [...]
Hubris, Humility, and Schadenfreude
The investment world has more than its fair share of characters.
While we’re already familiar with The Doomster, it’s the Robert “I dare you to call this a regular battery” Conrad phase of a manager’s career–the part where everyone (and most of all, you) think you’re God–that tends to tempt fate and gathers steam for eventual karmic retribution from the market.
Last week, Dealbook reported fund manager John Paulson’s Toast to His Firm’s Fortunes, a dinner that featured “Jumbo crabmeat & avocado, paired with 1999 Haut-Brion; and Colorado rack of lamb with tarragon jus and parmesan polenta cake, paired with 1999 [...]
The 50/200 Cross: AMED
A stock scan performed after the close for “the cross” found one stock that might be instructive. There were no ‘golden crosses’ with today’s market action:
Amedisys, Inc. (NASD:AMED)
Amedisys, Inc. is in the healthcare facilities industry. Deutsche Bank analysts downgraded AMED last week on concerns about a growing number of patients who are unable to pay their bills. The big gap on the charts will be a level both the bulls and bears will be watching carefully.
Daily Chart with InVivo Swing Trading Tools
When to Get Back In
The S&P 500 Index closed above the October 10 swing low today, triggering the “Mr. Magoo” reversal scenario laid out on November 14 and explained in a podcast last Thursday.
S&P 500 Index Closes Above October 10 Low
The key here is that tons of sellers got flushed in last week’s price action, namely those who (i) sold the technical breakdown of the descending triangle and/or (ii) were scared into puking by the Dow 6,000 projections and/or (iii) those who gave the market up for dead. With these people out of their long positions and/or short, there is [...]
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