Featured Research on Investor Sentiment and Beauty Contests
Collective “Belief Structures” Shift towards Pessimism
Stages of The Average Trading Day
Diversify Against Volatility, Hedge Against Market Risk
Portfolio Theory, Fat Tails, and Risk Management
"2008 reminded us that human beings have limited ability to peer into the future. . . . One way of shining a light on the future is to assume that the aspects of the future you care about (return, usually, for investors) can be represented by a probability distribution, that is, by a list of all possible values a variable can take on and an assignment of relative likelihood to each possible outcome."
Asset and Risk Management in a Post-Crisis Market
"The recent global financial crisis exposed investors to the two pitfalls of institutional investing: pro-cyclical investments and overly complex portfolios. Surprisingly, even sophisticated institutional investors followed the herd during the financial crisis and derisked their portfolios at the worst possible time."
In Theory, Wealth Trickles Down
America made subprime loans to undocumented workers to move people up the real estate Ponzi scheme. How will China do it with workers that make so little? If anything, China’s Gini coefficient is getting worse over time, not better.
Blame It On The Fed (Again)
The question to ask is this: if it's not the Fed, where is the inflation really coming from?