Intriguing article buy Pippa Malmgren dealing with likely European outcomes http://www.pippamalmgren.com/77.html with some interesting points. I think she paints a plausible view though somewhat sensationally at times (is there actually any evidence to the fact that Germany has put DMK on order with the printers?) Further she does not reflect entirely on the consequences of an immediate German withdrawal for German businesses. For one there would be so much upward pressure on the currency it would create massive imbalances not least for Germanys massive export industry in BMW, Siemens, BASF etc – competiveness would fall off a cliff. Pippa mentions that “the idea that Germany would tie its manufacturing base…. to a devaluing currency is unthinkable” suggesting she has no material grasp of what Germany intended in joining the Euro… they have been massive beneficiaries of a devalued currency since the Euro’s inception in 1999.
Also given that outstanding liabilities to Euro countries from German banks is enormous, the likelihood of even a fraction of this debt being repaid after withdrawal is negligible.
A quote I read recently…. if a bank lends out $100 dollars then risk sits with the borrower, if a bank lends out $1m then the risk sits with the bank!!
The Euro is a very big mess created entirely on a political whim which will invariably get messier.