Thought Exchange

Tagged: DIA RSS

• Pete 1:55 PM on November 1, 2010 Permalink
  Tags: DIA, Sentiment ( 84 )   

  Is the third time the charm? 

  Marketwatch.com reporting:

  But at least some advisers see a silver lining in how long it has taken the Dow to eclipse its April high. Among this group is Jack Schannep, editor of TheDowTheory.com, who has one of the better stock-market-timing records over the last decade among the nearly 200 tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.

  “The longer it takes for the Dow to close above its April highs,” Schannep argues, “the more vigorous should be the breakout. Breaking through this resistance level should bring some welcome press coverage and attention to the fact that the market would be up some 15% off the summer lows and over 70% above the March 2009 lows.”

  This is a most read article on Marketwatch. We can see the ‘sentiment’ out there just from reading Schannep’s thoughts.

  Will the word ‘breakout’ become the new buzz in the financial media?
  I guess we have to stay tuned and keep on watching the soap opera.

  Pete is discussing. Toggle Comments

   

  • Pete 2:04 PM on November 1, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

    Don’t the insiders believe in ‘breakouts’? Insider Selling Volume at Highest Level Ever Tracked “The overwhelming volume of sell transactions relative to buy transactions by company insiders over the last six months in key leading sectors of the market is the worst Alan Newman, editor of the Crosscurrents newsletter, has ever seen since he began tracking the data.”

• Pete 2:00 PM on October 11, 2010 Permalink
  Tags: DIA, Sentiment ( 84 )   

  Bespoke reporting:

  Last Friday, when the Dow closed just above 11,000, we asked readers which level the Dow would reach first — 10,000 or 12,000. As shown below, the results were split at 50/50 (337 for 12,000 and 334 for 10,000). No wonder the market is flat this morning.

  

  Talk about sentiment being 50/50 for Bulls and Bears at this point in time. Also interesting investors are still pouring money into bond funds.

  ICI: Total Long-Term Mutual-Fund Inflows $3.26B For Latest Week

  Long-term mutual funds had an estimated $3.26 billion of inflows in the latest week as investors added money to bond and hybrid funds, which more than offset continued outflows from equity funds, according to the Investment Company Institute.

  Bond funds have thrived, as they typically do in a lower interest-rate environment, while equity funds have failed to consistently attract new investment for more than a year. ICI posted an inflow streak during the summer during which nearly $50 billion was added to mutual funds, almost entirely all to bond funds, before posting outflows at the end of August.

   

• Pete 3:01 PM on September 27, 2010 Permalink
  Tags: DIA, Sentiment ( 84 )   

  Dow ‘Super Boom’ to Send Gauge to 38,820, Hirsch Says 

  Bloomberg.com reporting:

  The Dow Jones Industrial Average will surge to 38,820 in an eight-year “super boom” beginning in 2017, according to Jeffrey A. Hirsch, editor in chief of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac.”

  “All previous major economic booms and secular bull markets were driven by peace, inflation from war and crisis spending, and ubiquitous enabling technologies that created major cultural paradigm shifts and sustained prosperity,” he wrote in a press release sent with the 44th edition of the book.

  How quickly people forget we were having similar headlines in July but for “DOW 5,000″ instead of “DOW 38,820″, will investors dump those bond funds with these kind of headlines?

   

• Pete 9:13 PM on September 20, 2010 Permalink
  Tags: DIA, Head and Shoulders   

  Bob Prechter: My Charts Say DOW May Plummet To 2,000 

  Tech Ticker is reporting:

  An ominous pattern forming in the stock market may be telling us the DOW is about to plummet to 2000-3000, says Robert R Prechter, Jr.

  Prechter, who writes a market letter for Elliott Wave International, is no stranger to apocalyptic forecasts. For the past year or two, he has been steadfast in his prediction that the market is on the verge of a historic collapse. The timing and depth of this crash has varied–earlier this year, Prechter suggested the DOW might fall to 1,000, and more recently, he said we were looking at the worst bear market in 300 years–but he hasn’t wavered in his conviction that we’re due for major pullback.

  One cause of Prechter’s concern is a technical pattern called a “head and shoulders top.” Historically, Prechter says, this pattern has often preceded extended bear moves. Prechter thinks the left-hand “shoulder” of this pattern was the market peak in early 2000, the “head” the higher market peak in 2007, and the “right shoulder” the recovery we’re enjoying now.

  Link to Robert Prechter article

  

  With the chart above in mind, think again about what Prechter said: “Perhaps most important, the right shoulder must occur on ‘decidedly less volume.’” Well, overall trading volume has indeed remained relatively low. EWI’s Short Term Update recently said this about the market’s trading activity:

  “…today’s NYSE volume of 747 million shares traded (CQG data) makes it the slowest day of the year and that includes holiday-shortened trading days.” (Sept. 10)

  “Today’s internals (breadth and volume) were muted and are consistent with a rising trend that is tiring.” (Sept. 15)

  Funny how just when bulls are calling for a ‘breakout’, Prechter is still calling for a Head and Shoulders formation.

  John is discussing. Toggle Comments

   

  • John 9:22 PM on September 20, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

    Prechter is next to the bottom at CXO with 26% right rating. Steve Saville is only one lower. Their poor performance may be due to the fact they are alwyas bearish and bear markets are shorter than bulls.

    One could also see a 10 year trading range in the chart.

• Pete 1:33 PM on September 20, 2010 Permalink
  Tags: DIA, IYT ( 2 )   

  A Dow Theory buy signal? 

  Marketwatch.com reporting:

  Not to be left out of today’s burst of optimism on Wall Street, the venerable Dow Theory is close to issuing a buy signal.

  That’s because, assuming the stock market holds onto its mid-day gains, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 (SPX) will close above their rally highs set on Aug. 9.

  If they do, that will constitute a buy signal according to TheDowTheory.com, edited by Jack Schannep. The crucial levels to watch, on his interpretation, are 10,698.75 for the Industrials and 1,127.59 for the S&P 500.

  ——————————————————

  Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters, adheres to a more strict interpretation of the Dow Theory, and is therefore not quite ready to say that even a short-term buy signal has been generated. That’s because the Dow Transports as of mid-day trading in New York remain about 1% below their early August high (which came in at 4,516.35).

  Pete, and John are discussing. Toggle Comments

   

  • John 1:40 PM on September 20, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

    Schannep is top rated at CXO advisors being 65 % correct by their count while Russel is rated below Cramer (47%) at 40% right.

    • Pete 2:05 PM on September 20, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      Interesting that both are following the same Dow Theory but having such different results. Cramer at 47% rating has amazing marketing behind him, imagine he upped it to 50% then he would be ‘never be wrong’ marketing he he

• Pete 12:17 PM on August 31, 2010 Permalink
  Tags: DIA, Sentiment ( 84 )   

  Looking for Dow 9,000 

  Bespoke reporting:

  Yesterday after the close we asked readers which level the Dow would reach first — 9,000 or 11,000. The results are undoubtedly bearish, with 65% of the 881 respondents voting for 9,000. All types of investors read this site, so we believe this poll is pretty representative of the mood across the street. With nearly two-thirds of investors expecting the Dow to fall to 9,000 before it rises to 11,000, the mood out there right now is pretty dour.

  65% of those polled said Dow 9,000 first. Talk about sentiment!

  ArlingtonJB, Pete, and patw are discussing. Toggle Comments

   

  • patw 12:25 PM on August 31, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

    Maybe the market can rally up from here, but what would upset people the most? Perhaps a trendless, sideways market?

    • Pete 12:39 PM on August 31, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      Patw see then never ask that in the Poll Dow 9k, Dow 11k or Dow Sideways,,, I bet out of all the people who voted a very small would say sideways. Most people think markets “Have” to go either Up OR Down. Will Mr. Market make it so easy for 65% of the voters to be right at the same time? hehe Your scenario of a trendless market is something that would make a lot of people upset and give up even more. How diabolical would that be? ;)

    • ArlingtonJB 12:46 PM on August 31, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      I think that is a flaw in the survey (I took it by the way). There should have been a sideways option AND a time element. I voted Dow 11k, because I think the market is close to a bottom, but I don’t think Dow 11k is going to happen anytime soon.