The Tao of Markets

Tagged: DIA RSS

• Pete 12:17 PM on August 31, 2010 Permalink
  Tags: DIA, Sentiment (36)   

  Looking for Dow 9,000 

  Bespoke reporting:

  Yesterday after the close we asked readers which level the Dow would reach first — 9,000 or 11,000. The results are undoubtedly bearish, with 65% of the 881 respondents voting for 9,000. All types of investors read this site, so we believe this poll is pretty representative of the mood across the street. With nearly two-thirds of investors expecting the Dow to fall to 9,000 before it rises to 11,000, the mood out there right now is pretty dour.

  65% of those polled said Dow 9,000 first. Talk about sentiment!

  ArlingtonJB, Pete, and patw are discussing.

   

  • patw 12:25 PM on August 31, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

    Maybe the market can rally up from here, but what would upset people the most? Perhaps a trendless, sideways market?

    • Pete 12:39 PM on August 31, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      Patw see then never ask that in the Poll Dow 9k, Dow 11k or Dow Sideways,,, I bet out of all the people who voted a very small would say sideways. Most people think markets “Have” to go either Up OR Down. Will Mr. Market make it so easy for 65% of the voters to be right at the same time? hehe Your scenario of a trendless market is something that would make a lot of people upset and give up even more. How diabolical would that be? ;)

    • ArlingtonJB 12:46 PM on August 31, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      I think that is a flaw in the survey (I took it by the way). There should have been a sideways option AND a time element. I voted Dow 11k, because I think the market is close to a bottom, but I don’t think Dow 11k is going to happen anytime soon.

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• Pete 11:50 AM on July 27, 2010 Permalink
  Tags: DIA, SPY (17)   

  First Death Crosses, Now the 200-Day Moving Average 

  Jeff Cooper observes:

  On Monday the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports closed convincingly above their respective June closing highs, leaving a Dow Theory confirmation of a bullish direction for the market.

  The question is whether this signal will be any better than the dark cross sell signal scored on July 1 when the 50-day moving average on the S&P crossed below the 200-day moving average.

  Bloomberg reports:

  Dow Erases 2010 Loss as S&P 500 Tops Moving Average
  The rally that erased the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 2010 loss yesterday and carried the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index above its 200-day average spurred optimism among chart analysts and investors who track earnings.

  Wonder what Richard Russell thoughts are about this Dow Theory signal. Oh wait here it is :)

  A confirmed buy?
  To be sure, Russell has said that this buy signal has significance primarily for the short term, since on his interpretation stocks remain in a longer-term bear market. But any bullishness on his part represents quite a turnaround from the almost apocalyptic bearishness that Russell was espousing as recently as the end of June.

  At least we know what chart watchers are following carefully.

  Teresa Lo is discussing.

   

  • Teresa Lo 2:23 PM on July 27, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

    All I can say is “whipsaw”.