Tagged: gold RSS

  • Teresa Lo 1:47 PM on July 29, 2010 Permalink
    Tags: , gold   

    897 ETFs, 43 Categories and a Partridge in a Pear Tree 

    State Street has published their quarterly ETF industry guide [DOWNLOAD PDF].

    More interesting was a tidbit in their email blast:

    SPDR® Gold Shares [GLD] saw assets under management rise to over $50BN in June, fueled by inflows of more than $1.6BN during the month and $7.6BN year-to-date. Assets under management stand at $52.8BN with an average daily volume of more than $1.9BN1. For more information, including gold research and statistics, please visit http://www.spdrgoldshares.com.

    So, nearly 15 percent of the money in GLD came in this year.

     

  • Dale 10:54 AM on June 7, 2010 Permalink
    Tags: gold   

    Teresa, I think I just saw the Gold “finger” you warned us about on the live trading session last week. Thanks. I hope no one was caught short.

     

  • Teresa Lo 2:15 PM on June 1, 2010 Permalink
    Tags: gold   

    Gold to $10,000? $36,000? $GLD 

    When analysts and pundits begin to make large-percentage upward price projections after a long uptrend, we must take note of this obvious sentiment indicator.

    Gluskin Scheff Chief Economist & Strategist David Rosenberg wrote today, “Interestingly, gold is hanging in (and up in dollar terms now for seven straight sessions — since mid-January, every interim low has been higher than its predecessor and ditto for every intermittent high. The chart looks great and hardly parabolic.) and added:

    GOLD HEADING TO $10,000 AN OUNCE?
    Peter Schiff thinks that is a real possibility — see page 45 of the current BusinessWeek. There is no doubt that when benchmarked against the CPI, money supply and GDP, gold can easily double from here. Demand is always difficult to forecast, especially for jewellery, but we do know that central banks have very deep pockets and bought more gold last year (425 tons) than at any other time since 1964.

    The supply backdrop is also highly conducive to a sustained bull market. Mined production is no higher now than it was a decade ago and has fallen outright in 5 of the past 8 years. And, we know what the marginal cost curve is doing because there is so little cheap supply left in the ground that gold companies now have to drill as much as 2.3 miles to get to the yellow metal in South Africa (and all Bernanke has to do is press a button).

    Not to be outdone, some dude on CNBC bandied about the figure of $36,000:

    Gold at $36,000 Not as Ridiculous as It Sounds?
    Gold should be viewed not as a commodity, but as a cash supplement, Davies said.

    “There’s been such proliferation of currency,” he said. “As a consequence, gold is very undervalued.”

    “I could be really obtuse and say $36, 000,” he said. “But actually it’s not as ridiculous as it might sound.”

    If all the reported Fort Knox gold was re-valued at $36,000 per ounce, it would pay off all the debt in the US, he said.

    OK, then. To infinity and beyond!

     

    • ekuutan 4:24 PM on June 1, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      Thought I should post Marc Faber’s comments to see the alternate view. Intermediate term gold will probably decline, but Long term I still think its good.

      “I am aware that some pundits think gold to be “a bubble.” But let me point out the following. Gold prices have not increased much compared to other assets, which reached bubble phases, such as the Nikkei Index between 1970 and 1989, US high tech stocks in the 1990s, and home prices after 1995 (see Figure 18). Gold has also risen far less since 1999 than in the 1970s when the gold price increased by more than 20-times.

      People who think gold to be a “bubble” also will also argue that it is an “over-owned” asset.
      Let me shed some light on this point. Every year I attend numerous investment seminars, corporate meetings, and conferences. I frequently ask who among the audience owns some gold. Usually a maximum of between 3% and 5% of the participants own some gold or other precious metals (one exception was the Mises Institute Conference: there about 50% of the participants owned gold but bear in mind that these are the true hard core “sound money” protagonists). In fact, given all the money printing that is going on around the world I was rather shocked that when I attended recently five different conferences and group meetings with investors I consider to be “sophisticated,” prudent, and “intelligent,” hardly anyone among them owned any physical gold or silver (usually among 200 people maybe 3 people).

      I can assure my readers that I have lived through a huge gold mania when gold really became over-owned. That was in the late 1970s, when I was running the Drexel Burnham Lambert’s Hong Kong office, which had more in common with a sleazy casino than with a brokerage office. Day and night clients would come by (I kept the office open 24 hours a day) and gambled through our dealers in “London gold” or in futures. Also, when you traveled in the late seventies, people everywhere in the world knew the price at which they could buy or sell gold and silver. Nobody then was interested in equities or bonds! That was the time when precious metals were over-owned and when they were in the midst of a huge mania. But now! If anything gold is significantly under-owned (see Figure 19).

      I am not implying that gold and silver prices cannot decline, but any decline would occur for other reasons than gold and silver being “over- owned.” So, I should like to categorically state that anyone who says that gold is over-owned and in the midst of a mania is completely clueless about the nature of asset markets and about what happens in the late phases of an investment mania when speculation gets completely out of hand (as was the case for gold and silver in the late 1970, Japan in the late 1980s, and the NASDAQ in 2000).”

    • jock 5:09 PM on June 1, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      Now I feel like the moderate that I always knew I was. – gold $5000? – piece of cake !

  • patw 10:55 PM on May 27, 2010 Permalink
    Tags: gold   

    while listening to your early morning commentary about gold, I saw this, T, thought you would find interesting…

    GLD ETF AUM May Grow by 239 Million Shares According to Shelf Registration
    Submitted by numis-exchange on Thu, 05/27/2010 – 19:29
    Hot on the heels of Sprott Physical Gold Trust ETV (PHYS) offering 18 Million new shares, The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) announces a shelf registration of 239 Million shares. Currently, GLD has 390 Million shares outstanding for a total market cap of over $40 Billion. At todays close of $118.47, it represents a potential increase of $28 Billion or 61% increase in AUM.

    The commencement date of the proposed sale to the public is listed as “from time to time after the effective date of the registration”.

     

  • Teresa Lo 9:57 PM on May 26, 2010 Permalink
    Tags: Gartman, gold, HAG-TC   

    Dennis Gartman: When Newsletter Writers Trade 

    As seen on TV all the time guru Dennis Gartman was interviewed on Bloomberg Surveillance today accepting kudos for his calls on gold.

    Of course, trading is not quite the same as writing.

    FOR MEMBERS: Update: When Newsletter Writers Trade

     

  • Dale 10:36 AM on May 24, 2010 Permalink
    Tags: , gold,   

    Just a question about Gold. Dropped hard last week, and now seems almost stunned… just drifted up 1-2% from the low last Thurs-Fri. I expected a big snap back or a further drop, but not this. Any comments?

     

    • Ondrej 1:45 PM on May 24, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

    • Teresa Lo 6:44 PM on May 24, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      If almost everyone who expects something to go up already owns it, who is there to take it higher?

      GLD Daily Chart

      That failed breakout probably doesn’t help. For members, check out this podcast.

      • Dale 7:59 PM on May 24, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

        Thanks, Ondrej, T, I guess now, we drift along happily watching the movie until someone shouts “fire” in the theater.

        • Teresa Lo 8:08 PM on May 24, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

          I just added a link to my original reply.

          • Dale 8:32 PM on May 24, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

            this could be very brutal for those who have overallocated to Gold in an attempt to keep making money when the stock market is down. T, I think you mentioned the Woody Brock scenario about many people with highly correlated pricing model error. I wonder if it is compounded by leverage… yes, I’m somewhat short for a trade in my funny money account… also plan to keep holding GLD in the portfolio.

            • Teresa Lo 12:29 AM on May 25, 2010 Permalink

              Three factors: i.) correlated mistake, ii.) pricing model uncertainty and iii.) leverage. On top of that, everyone is hoping that gold price is somehow uncorrelated with equities.

      • wiinky 11:44 PM on May 24, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

        Mish asked a similar question about U.S. home ownership :

        “Can I ask a simple question: Who does not have a house that wants one and can afford one, and does not need money from the government to buy one, and is not in danger of losing their job?”

        “Supposedly there is a recovery underway. Recovery my ass.”

      • Teresa Lo 12:38 AM on May 25, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

        Also, I’m sure everyone is watching to see if gold can hold the 50-day MA.

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