Thought Exchange

Tagged: SPY RSS

• Pete 11:07 AM on January 4, 2011 Permalink
  Tags: Sentiment ( 84 ), SPY, TLT ( 10 )   

  AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Bond Holdings at a 10-Month Low 

  Barry Ritholtz reporting:

  Individual investors kept their portfolio allocations to equities essentially unchanged last month, according to the latest AAII Asset Allocation Survey. Stock and stock mutual fund allocations were 62.2% in December. The historical average is 60%.

  Bond allocations fell for a third consecutive month. Individual investors held 20% of their portfolios in bonds and bond funds in December, a 1.8 percentage-point decline from November. This is the smallest allocation to fixed income since February 2010. The historical average is 15%.

  Who needs stinking bonds? Sure that is good sentiment to be watching, but this actually caught
  my attention.

  This month’s special question asked AAII members which asset class will perform best in 2011: large-cap stocks, small-cap stocks, international stocks, Treasuries, corporate bonds or precious metals. Respondents said that large-cap and small-cap stocks should deliver the highest total returns, with both asset classes receiving similar numbers of votes. International stocks were also picked by many investors. Bonds, both corporate and Treasuries, received very few votes.

  Now we can see where individual investors are pouring into.

   

• Pete 11:56 AM on November 29, 2010 Permalink
  Tags: Sentiment ( 84 ), SPY   

  S&P 500 slides under 50-day moving average 

  FinancialPost.com reporting:

  The S&P 500 slid under its 50-day moving average in early trade on Monday while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost a grip of the 11,000-level.

  I bet pretty soon we will be getting a lot of chart talk about moving averages.

  Reminds us to keep an eye on the The Justin Mamis Investor Sentiment Cycle

  DISBELIEF
  The market fails to go higher, and indeed many of the early leaders have broken down under the 50-day moving average, giving technicians the Subtle Warning. This marks the beginning of the ‘something is not right’ gut feeling, but in the absence of bad news, investors hold on to hope. Not only are they heavily invested in the market, they are psychologically invested in being right and they ignore anything that does not go with their worldview. Indeed, they even wonder aloud why their beloved stocks cannot go up amidst good news, higher earnings guidance and analyst upgrades.

  Also this article has good market sentiment regarding small investors.
  Morici: Have Stocks Become a Sucker Bet?

  With corporate profits breaking records, Wall Street anxiously anticipates the return of the individual investors to the stock market. It may be a long wait, because the little guy may have concluded investing in stocks is a sucker bet.

  Pete is discussing. Toggle Comments

   

  • Pete 1:36 PM on November 29, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

    Use Today’s Pullback as a Buying Opportunity

    “While you have a selloff today based on concerns about Europe, it is not going to derail our economy,” Katz told CNBC. “So we’d use today’s weakness as a buying opportunity.”

    Katz said he is bullish on the markets and expects earnings to eventually drive stock prices higher.

    “The economy is on the mend, there is no fear of a double dip and stocks are at 11.5 to 12.5 times earnings,” he said.

    Mr. Katz sounds a lot like: “Not only are they heavily invested in the market, they are psychologically invested in being right and they ignore anything that does not go with their worldview.”

  • Pete 2:24 PM on November 29, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

    Here we go–S&P 500 Testing 50-DMA

• Pete 1:09 PM on November 5, 2010 Permalink
  Tags: emerging markets ( 13 ), Sentiment ( 84 ), SPY   

  Janus Overseas Turns to U.S. With Emerging Markets ‘Secret’ Out 

  Bloomberg.com reporting:

  Brent Lynn has beaten 96 percent of rivals since taking over the Janus Overseas Fund in 2003, in part by investing in stocks from emerging markets such as India and Brazil.

  Now Lynn is finding attractive bets closer to home. Delta Air Lines Inc., Ford Motor Co. and Bank of America Corp. were top 10 holdings as of Sept. 30 at the $13 billion mutual fund, which more than doubled its weighting in U.S. stocks in the past three years while cutting emerging-market holdings by a third.

  “Some of the best investing opportunities may be in the developed markets of the United States and Europe,” Lynn said in a telephone interview from Denver, where Janus Capital Group Inc. is based. “Growth may not be as exciting as it is in some emerging countries, but there are interesting things going on under the surface.”

  With all the hot money running into emerging markets it’s interesting to see an emerging markets manager being bullish in developed markets like the US.

   

• Pete 3:52 PM on October 31, 2010 Permalink
  Tags: Sentiment ( 84 ), SPY   

  Bears,Beware! (Barrons Cover) 

  Barrons.com reporting:

  America’s money managers say stocks are cheap and the economy will keep growing. Why they’re bullish on tech, bearish on Congress.

  THINGS ARE MORE TOPSY-TURVY than ever on Wall Street this fall. The mercury is rising and the speculative sap is flowing, even though September and October historically have been among the worst months for stocks. Instead of the usual meltdowns, a powerful rally since Aug. 31 has lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor’s 500 by about 12% apiece, while the tech-stock-fueled Nasdaq Composite has surged 18%.

  

  “The water is fine everyone back into the pool!” :)

  Teresa Lo is discussing. Toggle Comments

   

  • Teresa Lo 11:18 AM on November 1, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

    Nice! Santoli was bullish too.

• Pete 12:24 PM on October 28, 2010 Permalink
  Tags: Sentiment ( 84 ), SPY   

  Stock-Fund Streak: 2 Weeks 

  WSJ.com reporting:

  For the week ended Oct. 20, ICI reported that stock funds had inflows of $2.02 billion, compared with inflows of $762 million the prior week. U.S. stock funds had $202 million pulled from them, while $2.22 billion was added to foreign funds.

  A week earlier, stock funds reported their first weekly increase since early May, ending a 23-week streak that saw nearly $92 billion pulled from the funds. The reversal was due to continued flows into foreign-focused funds—emerging markets have been the destination for billions of dollars in so-called hot money of late—while outflows from domestic stocks moderated.

  Bespoke reporting:
  AAII Bullish Sentiment Hits a Two Year High

  According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment this week rose to 51.23%, which is the highest reading since May 2008.

  Jim Cramer:
  This Market Is Cheap, Cheap, Cheap

  With the market continuing to push higher, as the Dow and S&P 500 finished in the green yet again, a certain segment of Wall Street is wondering how long it can last. Aren’t stocks overvalued at this point, they ask? Eventually the run has to end, doesn’t it?

  Not necessarily. At least not while companies are beating the Street’s earnings estimates and upping their guidance to boot. See, it’s not our housing woes or unemployment claims that drive share prices. It’s specifically a company’s ability to deliver upside surprises and upwardly revised earnings outlooks. And these days, that’s just what we’re getting.

  Lots of bullishness out there. ‘Nothing can go wrong’ mentality?

  Pete is discussing. Toggle Comments

   

  • Pete 12:33 PM on October 28, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

    via Barry Individual investors are now officially giddy “Individual investors are now officially giddy for stocks.” The word giddy now being used to talk about retail investors.. interesting

  • Pete 12:38 PM on October 28, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

    One more bullish headline via CNBC Why Markets Will Continue Rallying: Strategists “To me, all these things will be a springboard to a market that will continue to rise to the end of the year,” Gordon Charlop

  • Pete 3:32 PM on October 28, 2010 Permalink | Log in to Reply

    Via CNBC Retail Investors Finally Putting Money Back Into US Stocks? “However, some fear that retail investors could make a mistake by re-entering a stock market that now (as some would argue) has more downside risk, with stocks currently sitting essentially at 2-year highs even when the economic outlook remains uncertain. They point out, the retail investor has already missed the significant run-up in stocks over the past 2 months (S&P 500 up 13 percent since August 30), and that the individual investor can’t afford to participate in another market downturn.”

• Pete 12:49 PM on September 23, 2010 Permalink
  Tags: Sentiment ( 84 ), SPY   

  Mom-and-pop investors to US stock market: ‘No thanks’ 

  Reuters.com reporting:

  Retail investors are unlikely to return to the stock market any time soon as they focus on deleveraging and preserving capital, said TrimTabs’ macro research director Madeline Schnapp.

  ————————-

  “Individuals have been burned by the bursting of two asset bubbles in the past decade, and they are a lot less wealthy now than they were three years ago,” Schnapp said in a research report on Wednesday.

  Another double-whammy for U.S. stocks: Many of the 78 million Baby Boomers are inadequately prepared for retirement, “and they probably will choose safety over risk,” Schnapp said.

  Assets in Treasuries, savings accounts, and small and large CDs is “scared money” that is unlikely to find its way into the stock market, she added. “We are pessimistic about the stock market’s longer-term prospects,” Schnapp said of TrimTabs Investment Research, which tracks fund flows closely.

  “Baby Boomers are approaching retirement, wage and salary growth is weak, job growth is anemic, and money is unlikely to flow into equities from savings vehicles.”

  ArlingtonJB earlier comment “Perception is reality.”
  To get Mom and Pop investors back into the game something big needs to happen to excite them again.